Walk-forward validated backtest across 84 time windows. Every bear market avoided. Capital compounded through every bull run.
⚠️ All figures are from a historical backtest — not live trading. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future performance. Past returns were not achieved with real capital at risk. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. You may lose all the money you invest.
Indexed to 100 at start · Log scale · Red bands = bear market (engine: cash)
Bitcoin 4h OHLCV data, Oct 2017 – Mar 2026. Walk-forward validated across 84 windows. Includes 0.26% Kraken taker fee + 0.1% slippage per trade. All trades execute at next bar open (t+1). Past performance does not guarantee future results.
CalyxFi signals an entry quickly once the MA-200 is reclaimed and the ML model confirms a bull regime, then holds the signal until the trend breaks down.
| Bull Run | Entry | Exit | CalyxFi Return | Why It Entered |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Bull | Feb 2019 | Jul 2019 | +191% | MA-200 reclaimed after a 13-month bear; ML model confirmed momentum building from the $3,200 BTC low |
| 2020–21 Bull | Apr 2020 | Nov 2021 | +730% | Price recovered above MA-200 weeks after the COVID crash; regime filter confirmed bull structure as BTC surged from $4k |
| 2023–24 Bull | Jan 2023 | Nov 2024 | +240% | MA-200 reclaimed as BTC broke out of the post-FTX base; ML model confirmed structural bull regime off the $15k low |
The single most valuable feature of CalyxFi is what it doesn't do. While BTC buy-and-hold suffered catastrophic losses in every cycle, CalyxFi's signals indicated exits — giving users the opportunity to preserve capital.
| Bear Market / Correction | Duration | BTC Drawdown | CalyxFi Drawdown | Signal Status | Exit Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018–2019 Bear | ~13 months | −84% | ≈ 0% | In Cash | MA-200 crossover |
| H2 2019 Decline | ~6 months | −34% | −14%† | In Cash | MA-200 crossover |
| Black Thursday (Mar 2020) | ~6 weeks | −63% | < 2% | In Cash | MA-200 crossover |
| May 2021 Crash | ~3 months | −40% | −9%† | In Cash | Stop-loss → MA-200 |
| 2022 Bear (LUNA + FTX) | ~13 months | −77% | ≈ 0% | In Cash | MA-200 crossover |
| Jan–Mar 2025 Correction | ~3 months | −28% | −4%† | In Cash | Stop-loss |
| 2025 Bear (Ongoing) | 5+ months | −35%+ | < 4% | In Cash | MA-200 crossover |
† Re-entry drag: CalyxFi attempted to re-enter as BTC briefly reclaimed the MA-200, but stop-losses triggered on each attempt, resulting in small losses. The strategy was working as designed — it protected against the major drawdown while absorbing minor re-entry costs. The max drawdown of 35% occurs within bull runs, not during bear markets.
CalyxFi averages 8 trades per year — not because it's inactive, but because it only acts when conditions are right. Position sizing and regime detection prevent overtrading.
Average entry/exit pairs. Each represents a high-confidence bull run participation, not reactive noise trading.
Positions are held for weeks to months, capturing the bulk of bull run momentum rather than day-trading noise.
The primary exit signal is the MA-200 crossover — the signal remains active through the bull run and an exit is indicated when the trend structure breaks down.
All figures on this page are derived from a historical backtest — a simulation run on past data. Backtested results are hypothetical: they were not achieved by real trading, and no real money was at risk. They reflect how the strategy would have performed under the tested conditions, not how it will perform in the future.
The model was walk-forward validated across 84 rolling windows to minimise look-ahead bias and overfitting. Transaction costs of 0.26% per trade (Kraken taker fee) and 0.1% slippage are applied to every entry and exit. Trades execute at the next bar open (t+1). Despite these precautions, live performance will differ — sometimes materially — due to slippage, liquidity, execution delays, model degradation, and market conditions not present in the historical sample.
CalyxFi is a research tool providing market analysis signals. It does not execute trades, manage funds, or provide financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and speculative. You may lose all of the money you invest. Nothing on this page should be interpreted as a guarantee, promise, or solicitation to invest.